Future Urban Landscapes: Climate Migration Projections in Cities
FUTURE URBAN LANDSCAPES
Climate Migration Projections in Cities
As climate impacts accelerate worldwide and force many to leave their homes, this research confirms that a large share will move towards urban areas and contribute to accelerating urbanisation.
The data is clear: by 2050, cities can expect to be home to a significant number of internal migrants as a result of the climate crisis – unless rapid action is taken to halt emissions and reduce associated climate impacts. In all scenarios there is a critical need for locally led inclusive climate action that can support the development of healthy, sustainable cities for all. Climate change is the crisis of our lifetime, but if we deliver on sustainable solutions for frontline communities, it does not need to be.
As the climate crisis intensifies, millions of people are expected to migrate from their homes, seeking safety and opportunity in urban areas around the world. But how prepared are our cities to handle this influx?
This report provides insights into climate migration into cities around the world, helping to support city leaders, policymakers, NGOs, and researchers committed to building resilient and inclusive urban futures.
Conversations around climate migration have typically focused on national-level impacts, leaving a critical gap in the understanding of how cities – often the very places most migrants will move to – are affected.
This report fills that gap by delivering urban-level data and analysis on internal climate migration across several Global South countries. It highlights how cities, especially in the Global South, will be at the forefront of climate-induced migration by 2050, with significant numbers of new residents arriving in search of safety and livelihoods. The report focuses on and presents data from the following cities:
- Accra, Ghana
- Amman, Jordan
- Bogotá, Colombia
- Curitiba, Brazil
- Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Freetown, Sierra Leone
- Karachi, Pakistan
- Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Salvador, Brazil
- São Paulo, Brazil
Climate Migrants by 2050 if 1.5C benchmark is surpassed
C40 Co-Chair, MMC Leadership Board Member and Mayor of Freetown, Yvonne Aki SawyerrIt shouldn’t just be cities in the Global South leading the charge—global cooperation is
essential.
Key findings on urban climate migration
The report – comprising data from these 10 cities – emphasises the urgent need for locally-led climate action. It highlights the critical necessity for cities to not only prepare for climate migration but also to adapt their infrastructure, services, and policies to create resilient, sustainable urban environments for all residents. Some of the key findings include:
- Climate as a driver of urban migration: By 2050, up to eight million people could migrate to just ten cities identified in the study, with the intensity varying based on global warming. This influx will exacerbate existing urban challenges, such as overcrowding and strain on local services.
- Risks of urban migration: Migrants often leave one set of climate risks behind only to face new risks in urban settings, particularly in informal settlements where vulnerabilities to climate impacts like heatwaves and landslides are high.
- The role of cities: Cities are not just passive recipients of climate migrants; they are active players in shaping the outcomes. The report highlights how cities can leverage this transition to build more inclusive, thriving communities.
Vittoria Zanuso, Executive Director, Mayors Migration CouncilCity leaders show what inclusive climate action looks like in practice. City leadership can turn climate migration from a crisis into an opportunity.
Recommendations for cities
The report offers several key policy recommendations for cities to better prepare for and respond to climate migration, including:
- Reducing emissions: International cooperation is essential to rapidly reduce global emissions, thereby slowing the acceleration of climate migration.
- Directing climate finance: Ensuring that climate finance reaches locally-led initiatives is crucial for building urban resilience and protecting all residents, both new and existing.
- Inclusive policy development: City policies must be inclusive, addressing the specific needs of migrant populations and enhancing overall urban wellbeing.
- Leveraging green transition opportunities: Cities can play a central role in the green transition by becoming hubs for green jobs and skills, contributing to more socially and environmentally just urban environments.
- Strengthening local data and capacity: Developing local-level data on climate migration is vital for effective urban planning and the implementation of anticipatory climate policies.
Urban climate migration is projected to rapidly accelerate over the coming years. As cities have seen firsthand, human mobility can positively contribute to the green transition, yet greater understanding is needed on how the green transition can itself present opportunities for economic inclusion at the origin, transit point, and destination of migratory trends.
